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How Exactly To identify value in your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent that you could find a combination where those for relevant internet site the three possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the chances of each outcome just isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we have been handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is an excellent one to show how you can use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn't seem to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any individual bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent that you could find a combination where those for relevant internet site the three possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 provided by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may very well be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. Which is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the chances of each outcome just isn't due to this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we have been handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) as well as a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is an excellent one to show how you can use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
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